60 Days on the Clock

Good afternoon from Doha,

I’m writing to you today from what has felt like the center of diplomacy this week, with Iranian delegations on the ground here and key mediation efforts being bolstered by Qatari officials alongside Pakistan.

Here’s everything we’re tracking on the situation with Iran.

REPORT: POSSIBLE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING AGREED TO?

Axios is reporting that “U.S. and Iranian negotiators have reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and launch negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, but President Trump has yet to give his final approval.”

Both U.S. and regional officials have confirmed the deal is real it just comes down to the President's approval.

If It happens, this would put 60 days on the clock to negotiate some of the key sticking points: control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear future.

In the short term, the President has said the framework coming together would get the Strait of Hormuz open immediately.

But the red lines both sides have drawn are as red as ever.

The President said this week Iran cannot control the Strait of Hormuz, cannot keep its enriched uranium, and cannot pursue nuclear weapons.

Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s national security committee, wrote in a post on X that “Iran will not be pushed back by Trump’s rhetoric from its red lines: the right to enrich uranium, possession of enriched uranium, authority over the Strait of Hormuz, and the removal of sanctions.”

Another layer in all of this is Lebanon.

Israel is presently expanding its operations there against Hezbollah. While the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has been in effect since April 17, regional security sources have told us Hezbollah has fired well over 1,000 rockets since then.

Iran wants any deal to end the fighting there — directly at odds with Israel’s position that it has a right to defend the North.

Yet another gap that needs to be bridged.

A TENSE NIGHT

The region is waking up to uncertainty after the United States and Iran exchanged fire.

Central Command says it shot down five Iranian one-way attack drones and hit a ground control site that was preparing to launch a sixth.

Iran says it targeted a U.S. base in Kuwait where the strikes came from, causing Kuwaiti air defense systems and sirens to be activated.

Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., and Kuwait have all condemned the Iranian attack.

“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stresses the need to spare the region the consequences of these unjustified attacks and to work towards de-escalation in order to restore regional and international security and stability,” Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

In tense environments like this, flare-ups do happen. Iran has vowed to strike harder if the escalations continue.

Nevertheless, diplomacy is pushing forward.

Pakistan, the lead mediator — assisted by the Qataris — is sending its Foreign Minister to Washington tomorrow, according to Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, to meet with Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

That just became a very important meeting.

THE BIG PICTURE

We’ve known from the very beginning what President Trump’s biggest and most ambitious goal here in the region is: Abraham Accords 2.0.

The first round under his last term changed the landscape in the Middle East, with Morocco, Sudan, Bahrain, and the U.A.E. all opening diplomatic ties with Israel. The Israeli-Emirati partnership that has since blossomed is evidence of just how much the region can shift with such a maneuver.

The U.S. is engaged in mediating diplomacy between Israel and Lebanon and has been actively engaged with the new leadership in Syria to bring them into the fold.

But this week, the President made clear he has his eyes set on using the present moment to bring Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan on board as well.

“I am mandatorily requesting that all Countries immediately sign the Abraham Accords, and that, if Iran signs its Agreement with me, as President of the United States of America, it would be an Honor to have them also be part of this unparalleled World Coalition,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.

It would shift the region, but it comes with hurdles. 

Saudi Arabia has linked recognition of Israel to a resolution on the issue of Palestinian statehood.

Qatar has maintained a complicated regional role, serving as a key mediator in conflicts involving Israel, Hamas, Iran, and the United States, while also facing deep skepticism from some Israeli officials over its relationships across the region. Recognizing Israel could impact that role. 

Pakistan’s tensions with Israel run deep, as Pakistani passports have historically included a line that reads, “This passport is valid for all countries of the world except Israel.”

So yes, it’s complicated.

But the President has proven he’s willing to wield economic partnership and access to the American marketplace as tools to get the diplomatic movement he seeks.

It would unquestionably be historic.

But it won’t be easy.