Negotiations on two fronts

President Donald Trump answers questions during a news conference at the White House on June 27, 2025 (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Good morning from the Aegean Sea as we await possible developments in the Middle East.

First and foremost, thank you to all of you who have preordered “Lessons From the Front” already.

I’m fired up to share that Amazon has rated it a “Top New Release,” and it is currently ranked No. 1 in books dealing with Russia. I’m very grateful for your continued interest in this project. 

You can preorder the book through Amazon, Barnes and Noble or Bloomsbury.

Now, back to the “Frontlines” news.

Where we stand on a deal in Gaza

In many cases, we are in a holding pattern.

As discussed previously, some of the sticking points have been dealt with between Israel and Hamas, but negotiations continue. 

From what we’re hearing, the last remaining sticking point is a big one, and it comes down to bridging the ceasefire into a permanent peace. Where will the Israeli Defense Forces withdraw to? Can they redeploy after a 60-day ceasefire? 

Israel’s stance is clear: Gaza must be demilitarized, and Hamas cannot control Gaza after the war is over. That is a stance echoed by the White House. 

Hamas, on the other hand, wants to stay in power. By Israel’s own admission, Hamas has thousands of fighters still at its disposal. At this juncture, despite the fact that the IDF has been systematically eliminating Hamas’ leadership inside Gaza, there doesn’t seem to be a public desire from Hamas to dissolve or leave Gaza. So, here we are back at the impasse that still has yet to be addressed. 

It’s the same sticking point — and it’s still sticking. 

The situation in Ukraine

 

A few months ago, with a minerals deal signed, it looked as though we were on a trajectory toward a ceasefire and, potentially, the outright ending of the war in Ukraine.

The situation has changed greatly in recent weeks as Russia has rather routinely upped its pressure on Ukrainians with large-scale drone attacks. 

I’ve been hearing from people in Kyiv, who at this point are spending more time underground in shelters than aboveground, where Russia’s attacks could threaten them. 

President Donald Trump has been outspoken about his displeasure with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russia’s unwillingness to end the war at this juncture.

The White House is attempting to up its pressure on the Kremlin on two different fronts. First, economic pressure. If peace is not reached within 50 days, Russia will face new trade sanctions.

“We’re going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don’t have a deal in 50 days,” the president said. “Tariffs at about 100%.”

The other element to this is a novel way of getting weapons to Ukraine. In short, European allies buy the weapons from the U.S., then transfer them to the Ukrainians. The weapons will be necessary for Ukraine to hold off further Russian attacks. 

“I felt that we had a deal about four times, and here we are still talking about making a deal,” Trump said from the Oval Office, remaining optimistic that an agreement could be struck. 

One element to remember here is that Russia’s public stance is that the situation in Ukraine is an ongoing “operation” and that Russia is not at war. We can all sit here and call a spade a spade, but to Russia, there’s a tactful game that will need to be maneuvered. More pointedly, how do you end a war without publicly acknowledging you were at war to begin with?

The reason this is important? There are potential political consequences in Russia for Putin if the messaging is off. In all likelihood, the U.S. will need to walk the tightrope to reach a deal with the Kremlin.